Saturday, March 2, 2013

Ex-US Indices, Commodities and Treasuries Divergence With SPX in February

We have previously noted the importance of cyclical sectors leading the advance (here) and the correlation of US indices with equities in the rest of the world (here).

The advance in January was supported by cyclical sectors as well as key commodity groups and ex-US indices (first chart).

The choppier advance in February was supported by neither cyclicals, nor commodities nor ex-US indices (second chart). These divergences do not typically persist. The outlier is clearly the US indices; the others are all in agreement and supported by the decline in treasury yields.

Charts below.

The advance in January was supported by cyclical sectors as well as key commodity groups and ex-US indices. Treasuries underperformed. All the correlations worked as expected.



The choppier advance in February was not led cyclicals, nor supported by commodities or ex-US indices. Treasuries outperformed SPX and the decline in yield is in agreement with all the others. The outlier is clearly the US indices.